Quantifying our impact: A modelling framework to estimate the economic benefits of our initiatives

As an organisation with a wide geographic footprint across Africa and South Asia, it is challenging to assess the impact of our programmes at scale using rigorous field studies. However, together with our wider network of funders and partners, we need to know that the investments we are making are producing productivity and income benefits for small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) that warrant the financial investment in these initiatives.

In this regard, we partnered with Supporting Evidence based Interventions-Livestock (SEBI-L) to develop a model for practical use for our market development programmes. The model is used to estimate the economic impact of the initiatives on SSPs, prioritise product development decisions, and to direct market development effort. Furthermore, these analyses can be used to advocate for further investment in the SSP animal health sector.

In a paper published in Frontiers in Veterinary Science, the model was applied to estimate the impact of products sold during GALVmed’s People and Livelihoods 2 (PL2) programme. The PL2 programme, which was implemented between 2014 and 2017 in Africa and South Asia, supported the production and distribution of poultry anthelminthics and vaccines against Newcastle disease, fowl pox, sheep and goat pox, peste des petits ruminants, and East Coast fever.

The modelling framework

The model is conceptualised in terms of three components:

  • Products: this includes sales of products and the number of animals that are expected to be treated with the product (depending on the different pack sizes).
  • Disease epidemiology: this comprises the conditions that are treated, number of infections, mortality rates and impact on growth rate.
  • Economics: this comprises losses from reduced productivity and losses from livestock mortality.

The economic impacts from mortality and growth inhibition are estimated at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle. As SSPs are using veterinary products to prevent or minimise loss due to disease, we model the key ways in which those losses are experienced by SSPs and estimate the proportion of those losses that are averted by using specific animal health products. By factoring in the cost of the product and the number of doses sold, we give the net economic benefit (NEB).

The model can be adapted to incorporate new products and parameters as needed. The framework will evolve as GALVmed initiatives change over time.

The results

The model estimates a total NEB of $105.1M to the 3,664,114 customers reached by the PL2 initiatives. This translates to $139.9M in present value, and $37.97 on average per customer, many of whom were small scale poultry producers.

Within Sub-Saharan Africa, the greatest net economic benefit was realized from vaccines against East Coast fever and Newcastle disease, while in South Asia, peste des petits ruminants and Newcastle disease vaccines had the greatest net economic benefits.

The paper with the complete results and analysis is available here: A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives.

By understanding how GALVmed’s interventions translate into economic benefit for SSPs, we can continuously refine and optimise our approaches, ultimately driving a greater positive change in the economic progression and well-being of SSPs across Africa and South Asia.

This blog was written by the M&E team.

Using a Randomised Control Trial to study the impact of Newcastle Disease vaccine on poultry farmer welfare and livelihoods

In 2020, Oxford Policy Management (OPM) was contracted by GALVmed to implement an intervention and conduct an associated impact study on the adoption of a Newcastle Disease Vaccine (NDV) by small-scale poultry farmers in rural Tanzania in the districts of Chemba and Mbozi. The objective of the study is to quantify the causal effects that the delivery of NDV has on the “production, productivity, and livelihoods of small-scale producers (SSPs)”. The study involves two main activities:

  1. The design and implementation of an NDV intervention in selected SSP farming areas of Tanzania.
  2. The design and implementation of an experimental study to quantify the causal effects of the NDV intervention.

The impact study was designed as a randomised controlled trial (RCT) where the study sample was randomly split into one treatment group and one control group. The treatment group was offered and will continue to be offered the NDV intervention package. This group will be compared with a control group, who did not and will not receive the intervention package during the study. The control group will receive one round of the intervention after the study’s endline survey.

A baseline study was conducted between September and November 2021 and the endline survey is scheduled for September to November 2023. Further details on the RCT and its findings will be made available upon publication of the results.

Blog written by Lamyaa Al-Riyami

Gender and Livestock: Exploring the trends in the dynamics of livestock ownership and care in small scale producer households

GALVmed conducted a study to build a better understanding of the household dynamics at play within livestock-owning small-scale producers (SSPs) households in India, Ethiopia and Tanzania. In particular, the study would afford a clearer focus on the issue of gender and livestock. This was considered necessary since previous GALVmed Monitoring and Evaluation studies (focusing on issues such as vaccine adoption, livestock productivity, etc.) had collected gender disaggregated data, but at a fairly limited level of detail. These wider studies have suggested highly variable trends and patterns in terms of livestock ownership and management between adult males and adult females. It was therefore considered necessary to undertake a one-off specialised gender study. This would provide the opportunity to drill considerably deeper into this topic of gender and household dynamics and to provide GALVmed with a much more detailed picture than is afforded through its standard livestock health related studies.

The results of the study revealed clear and illuminating trends. The widely held generalisation that certain species of livestock are the preserve either of men or of women appears to be a misleading over-simplification. Both genders are active participants in the care of all species and children can also play an important role in the upkeep of household livestock. There are, however, clear trends in the activities undertaken by both men and women and, while these vary somewhat across geographies, they can be broadly described as:

  • For poultry: women perform more labour in the ‘daily chore’ type activities (e.g. feeding, cleaning housing etc.) but the input of men increases substantially for the ‘management and money’ type activities (e.g. buying medicines / vaccines, when to sell / slaughter, what to do with poultry income etc.). This increase in involvement by men does not eclipse that of women in these ‘management and money’ type activities. Rather, it suggests that poultry production is a shared household enterprise, albeit with a higher level of input by women.  
  • For small ruminants: noticeable geographical variations exist, although the general trend of more input by men in the ‘management and money’ categories than in the ‘daily chore’ activities continues. In the Ethiopian and Tanzanian study areas, this input by men eclipses that of women, but, even here, approximately 30 – 60% of households have active input by women in ‘management and money’ activities. Again, as a generalisation it seems fair to consider small ruminant production as a shared SSP household enterprise.
  • For large ruminants:  noticeable country variations exist but the perception that women have very little input or say in cattle (aside from milking) is shown to be largely inaccurate. Again, only in the Tanzanian study area is the role of women in ‘management and money’ activities eclipsed by men. As a generalisation, it seems fair to consider large ruminant production as a shared SSP household enterprise, albeit with a higher level of input by men.

The evidence from this study supports the theory that livestock is best considered as a shared household enterprise rather than a specific male or female SSP undertaking. It also highlights the dangers of collecting disaggregated gender data at a shallow or simplified level (as is often necessarily the case when the focus of the study lies elsewhere on animal health and productivity issues). Please see the full study report.