Quantifying our impact: A modelling framework to estimate the economic benefits of our initiatives

As an organisation with a wide geographic footprint across Africa and South Asia, it is challenging to assess the impact of our programmes at scale using rigorous field studies. However, together with our wider network of funders and partners, we need to know that the investments we are making are producing productivity and income benefits for small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) that warrant the financial investment in these initiatives.

In this regard, we partnered with Supporting Evidence based Interventions-Livestock (SEBI-L) to develop a model for practical use for our market development programmes. The model is used to estimate the economic impact of the initiatives on SSPs, prioritise product development decisions, and to direct market development effort. Furthermore, these analyses can be used to advocate for further investment in the SSP animal health sector.

In a paper published in Frontiers in Veterinary Science, the model was applied to estimate the impact of products sold during GALVmed’s People and Livelihoods 2 (PL2) programme. The PL2 programme, which was implemented between 2014 and 2017 in Africa and South Asia, supported the production and distribution of poultry anthelminthics and vaccines against Newcastle disease, fowl pox, sheep and goat pox, peste des petits ruminants, and East Coast fever.

The modelling framework

The model is conceptualised in terms of three components:

  • Products: this includes sales of products and the number of animals that are expected to be treated with the product (depending on the different pack sizes).
  • Disease epidemiology: this comprises the conditions that are treated, number of infections, mortality rates and impact on growth rate.
  • Economics: this comprises losses from reduced productivity and losses from livestock mortality.

The economic impacts from mortality and growth inhibition are estimated at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle. As SSPs are using veterinary products to prevent or minimise loss due to disease, we model the key ways in which those losses are experienced by SSPs and estimate the proportion of those losses that are averted by using specific animal health products. By factoring in the cost of the product and the number of doses sold, we give the net economic benefit (NEB).

The model can be adapted to incorporate new products and parameters as needed. The framework will evolve as GALVmed initiatives change over time.

The results

The model estimates a total NEB of $105.1M to the 3,664,114 customers reached by the PL2 initiatives. This translates to $139.9M in present value, and $37.97 on average per customer, many of whom were small scale poultry producers.

Within Sub-Saharan Africa, the greatest net economic benefit was realized from vaccines against East Coast fever and Newcastle disease, while in South Asia, peste des petits ruminants and Newcastle disease vaccines had the greatest net economic benefits.

The paper with the complete results and analysis is available here: A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives.

By understanding how GALVmed’s interventions translate into economic benefit for SSPs, we can continuously refine and optimise our approaches, ultimately driving a greater positive change in the economic progression and well-being of SSPs across Africa and South Asia.

This blog was written by the M&E team.

Using vignettes for gender research

Gender research can be used to understand community perceptions of social and gender norms. To better understand these perceptions in the context of poultry intensification, the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), in collaboration with GALVmed, recently carried out a rapid gender landscaping analysis in Tanzania, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe using a unique method – the vignette. The landscaping analysis was designed to inform the gender context underpinning the PRomoting and Enabling Vaccination Efficiently, Now and Tomorrow (PREVENT) project in these countries.

A fictitious story about a chicken-keeper named Amina is a tool for conversations about social norms

The vignette approach involves reading out a fictitious story involving a main protagonist in a focus group setting and leaving the end of the story blank for the group to comment on ‘what happens next’ as a tool for a conversation about social and gender norms. As the landscaping study was designed to understand community perceptions of women’s involvement in poultry intensification, the vignette in this study was of a chicken keeper named Amina, whose poultry business was flourishing. Amina’s husband approaches her and wants to discuss her business. Responses from the community as to what happened next ranged widely. The following are some examples:

Amina was talented in chicken keeping as she started before she was married and benefited from it. I believe her husband wanted to give her knowledge on the business as well as to congratulate her because what she does is beneficial to the family and the whole society.

– Woman in Tanzania.

There’s no mention on the story where Amina’s business takes a dwindling turn, but it is forever growing, which excites me a lot. So, when the husband wants to talk to Amina about her business, there’s an element of knowledge capacitation the husband wants to offer to her so the business grows to greater heights.

– Man in Zimbabwe.

Maybe the man is jealous she is doing better than him and not getting her attention and other men are eyeing her; she is getting more money. He might think maybe one day she will not be submissive to him. He is afraid.

– Woman in Nigeria.

Through the vignette, we were able to gather information about potential consequences from husbands, family members, and community members when a woman intensifies her poultry production at the expense of her care duties. This includes responsibilities to the family, children, community, or breaking social norms such as speaking to male customers at night. Such consequences include shaming, social ostracization, gossip, jealousy, marital conflict, possibly even domestic violence, or divorce. While support from a husband and family members can lead to growth of the business, as the husband becomes more involved, there is a question about whether women’s ability to control resources and benefits diminishes.

The results of this study raise some interesting questions for the PREVENT project and the gender consequences of poultry intensification. GALVmed will be using these findings to inform a gender intentional approach to understanding, tracking, and communicating the gendered effects of the project.

This blog was written by Katharine Tjasink and co-authored by Zoë Campbell (ILRI)